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"This is Part 4 of my series on "Our Next Frontier: the Ocean."
I've had a variety of experiences with the ocean around me. As a child I fished for sayori in Kewalo Basin, caught a giant Samoan Crab from the Ala Moana Boulevard bridge over the Ala Wai Canal (no, that's not me, but my crab was almost as big), and body surfed at Point Panic. Only when I went away from Honolulu did I begin to realize that the ocean was the solution for the Hawaiian economy, and much later, that, too, for the World.
At the University of Hawaii I tried everything I could to stimulate interest in ocean development. However, as essentially the campus ecologist in the 70's, someone who interacted with Tony Hodges and Sophie Ann Aoki of Life of the Land, and taught a course I created called "Technology and Society," which regularly drew 100 students each semester from across the campus, I always balanced concern for the environment in my endeavors.
Three years in the U.S. Senate beginning in 1979 working for Senator Spark Matsunaga further allowed me to focus on marine affairs, as I was the staff lead for the Hard Minerals Act (seabed minerals) and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC). I also helped Tom Gray (left, House staffer--who was less hirsute and 30 years younger then) get the Wind Energy Act through Congress. Offshore windpower could be a particularly attractive future for Hawaii, as our best regimes are located between our islands, and these winds are not turbulent. But, in addition to electricity, freshwater and hydrogen, it is the cornucopia of potential bioproducts from upwelled OTEC plantships that show especial promise.
Upon my return to the Manoa Campus, I mostly wore two hats, director of the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute and vice president of development for the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research. The OTEC team I hired for PICHTR [Luis Vega (left), Steve Masutani (above), and Gerard Nihous (right)] succeeded in building a 103 kW (net) open cycle system at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority. Andy Trenka led the team, but, sorry, Andy, I could not find a photo of you. At the University of Hawaii, HNEI became the national lead for marine minerals technology (Department of Interior, led by Harry Olson, Mike Cruickshank and Charles Morgan), marine bioproducts engineering (National Science Foundation, Oskar Zaborsky, Charles Kinoshita, Michael Cooney and Jian Yu) and hydrogen (Department of Energy, Rick Rocheleau, et al).
The next step, then was to integrate these elements into a cohesive package, and that was the Blue Revolution. There were two important political steps. With the staff of Senator Dan Inouye, we built the foundation for funding, while State Senator Richard Matsuura and I in 1991 were the first to present a paper on the subject. Senator Matsuura unfortunately passed on prematurely, and today gained a distinguished Western legislator award posthumously. Who knows where the Blue Revolution would be today if he were still active, for he had worked for Norman Bourlag on the Green Revolution and had a PhD in ag technology.
To quote from the original Blue Revolution Hawaii blogsite:
Planning for the Blue Revolution
To recap, then, in 1979, the legislation I helped draft on ocean thermal energy conversion convinced me that this was a very special technology. Not necessarily for electricity, as the small temperature differential between the surface and deep waters meant that the realistic efficiency could only be around 3%, one-tenth that of conventional power plants. However, between the 20 degree North and South Latitude bands around the equator is this enormous hot/cold water resource. The Sun heats the surface and the thermohaline circulation brings cold fluids from the Arctic and Antarctic. Just pull up this fluid from 1000 meter depths and you can pass it through what would amount to a perpetual motion machine, the effluent which can also provide free fertilizer to stimulate new growth. Marine biomass plantations and next generation fisheries should thrive. Green chemicals / materials and biofuels can be manufactured from the biomass and hydrogen can also be produced. The plant ships could well become industrial parks, then, floating cities. Perhaps you might also cool the surface to prevent the formation of hurricanes. Plus, who knows, if you can be clever about the chemical balance, possibly also suck up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to reduce climate warming. This is the BLUE REVOLUTION.
All the above, and much more, set the stage. Six other events were particularly significant. First, in 1988......
Second, the Berlin Wall.....
Third, the paper trail of the Blue Revolution originally began in April of 1991 with a presentation Hawaii State Senator Richard Matsuura and I made to the First International Workshop on Very Large Floating Structures......
Fourth, Phyliss Min, Mark Foreman and Margaret Cummisky, staff members of U.S. Senator Daniel Inouye.....
Fifth, and frivolously, two longtime-colleagues and co-authors of many things ocean, Joseph Vadus, Chief Ocean Technologist of NOAA, Takeo Kondo, now chairman of the Ocean Engineering and Architecture Department at Nihon University (Japan), and I were taken out to a fugu restaurant in Kita-Kyushu by an industrial representative....
More seriously, sixth, in 1992, I was the principal investigator for a study commissioned by the National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), called "U.S. Ocean Resources 2000," to serve as a blueprint for ocean commercialization. Paul Yuen and John Carey of NOAA were the co-chairmen. At a complementary gathering that year, Joseph Vadus and I linked a workshop to the Kailua-Kona Pacific Congress on Marine Science and Technology, where the participants projected that a 100,000 square foot ocean resource incubator platform could be built and operated in the year 2000 for 500 million. It was argued that in view of the 2.4 billion cost of each B-2 bomber, this was an opportunity that could not be wasted. However, regarding item 2 above, no peace dividend appeared after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the opportunity, indeed, passed by. It was then that I realized the Blue Revolution was not going to be spearheaded by the United States, for, first, we just did not have the will to take charge, and second, American ocean industry was transfixed on defense products. I thus undertook a personal mission to seek assistance from other countries.
That was two decades ago. The above is, of course, from Chapter 4 of "SIMPLE SOLUTIONS FOR PLANET EARTH". An engineering journal article linking the above can be found in the "JOURNAL OF ENERGY ENGINEERING".
"To be continued".
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The Dow Jones Industrials, down by 145 at one point, recovered to only lose 11 at 12,132. You would have thought that "the deal" would cause skyrockets, but France and Germany dropped by more than 2%, while the Orient rose a bit. Gold fell 7/toz to 1620 and so did oil, the NYMEX at 95/barrel and the Brent Spot at 117/barrel.
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In the east Pacific, Hurricane Eugene should drop back to being a tropical storm soon, but curiously enough, is projected to regain hurricane status in a couple of days, and who knows what, but all signs point to turning a bit more northwards and weakening from cooler waters.
However, Typhoon Muifa, now dropping to a Category 3 at 125 MPH, is expected to strengthen again to a 4, but weaken to a 3 when landfall is expected around Naha at 3PM on Thursday. Projections show Muifa down to a Category 2 off Shanghai, when expected is a more northern pathway towards South Korea, probably sparing Zhoushan, too, and China.
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BY ROBERT HUNZIKER
"Dissident Voice"
December 22nd, 2012
China's three-decade-old conversion to state capitalism has radically transformed the country. As a result, more than one-half of China's population now lives in an urban setting versus 26% in 1990, and China has 19 mega cities each with over 10 million population. This vast undertaking has become a way forward for a population of 1.4 billion people (a population larger than the United States, the European Union, and South America combined) to conduct business on the world stage, and the ramifications are felt all across the planet.
As China increasingly adapts to capitalism, conflict arises within its own society as well as beyond its borders. Capitalism's penchant for conflict goes back as far as the middle of the 19th century when Karl Marx was the first economist in the world to notice how "boom & bust" economic cycles were largely unknown to the world until capitalism hit the scene. These boom however, China is opening a new coal power plant every 10 days to meet the power requirements of an urbanization trend that is unprecedented in world history. One hundred million people will move to the cities over the next few years, which correspondingly necessitates much more energy than what is required for peasant villagers. As a result, China's per capita CO2 emissions are destined to go up!
Surprisingly, the state-run media in China concedes that manmade climate change is proven science, but according to Ms. Yan, its media does not discuss coal, which is the source. Nevertheless, in stark contrast to some of the major media outlets in America, China's media is supportive that proven science explains manmade climate change. Consequently, the government of China has serious plans under consideration to control and/or reduce CO2 emissions.
CHINA'S (AND SE ASIA'S) THREATENED WATER SUPPLY
According to Li Yan, the biggest concern with climate change in Asia is losing the "Water Tower of Asia," which consists of the glaciers in the Tibetan mountains. Yan believes that within 30-40 years the entire basin area, comprising hundreds of millions of people, will experience a severe water shortage because of the loss of melting glaciers.
The Tibetan plateau and adjoining mountain ranges, including the Himalayas, the Karakoram, Pamir, and the Qilian consist of a vast mountainous terrain known as the Third Pole, containing 100,000 square kilometers of glaciers supplying water to more than one billion people. According to an article inNature magazine, July 2012, Yao Tandong, a glaciologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Tibetan Research in Beijing: "The majority of the glaciers have been shrinking rapidly across the studied area in the past 30 years." This analysis is based upon satellite surveys as well field measurements, which are much more accurate than satellite surveys alone.
The status of glaciers in the Tibetan region has been a point of contention ever since a survey by GRACE (The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite) earlier this year indicated that high-altitude glaciers on the whole were only losing ice at 1/10th the rate previously estimated and that the glaciers on the Tibetan plateau were actually growing. But, such is not the case according to Tandong's studies, for example, a large variation in measurements in different parts of the Third Pole has been discovered where Himalayas' glaciers are retreating faster than the Karakoram glaciers, depending upon the prevailing wind patterns, whether it's the westerlies or the influence of the monsoons. Additionally, GRACE cannot distinguish between ice and liquid water. Therefore, by measuring glacier melt lakes, a clearer picture emerges, which methodology shows the glacial lakes have increased by 26% over the past 30 years. John Wahr, University of Colorado says, "This is an important weakness of GRACE for any non-polar glacier study."
The key take away from these more detailed Third Polar studies is that the Tibetan glaciers are shrinking rapidly, and this becomes evident once the inconsistencies and weaknesses of GRACE are discounted.
Furthermore, according to Cheng Haining, senior engineer at Qinghai Province's Surveying and Mapping Bureau, seventy percent (70%) of the glaciers in the headwaters of the Lancang River (one of SE Asia's most important rivers, known as the "Danube of the East") have disappeared. Another study by the province shows 80 glaciers that provide water for the Yellow River (the "mother river" and the cradle of Chinese civilization) are shrinking, and the Yangtze River (responsible for 20% of China's economy) is threatened as well. Meteorological stations in the area show temperatures are at 50-year highs. "The melting of the glaciers could lead to a water shortage and even a dry-up of the rivers in the long run, and consequent ecological disasters like wetland retreat and desertification," according to Xin Yuanhong, an engineer with the Qinghai Hydrography and Geology Study Center.
"In the long run, glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers such as the Indus and the Ganges... Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril," says Qin Dahe, a researcher at Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The 1980s is proving to be a major milestone for climate change, whether it is the North Pole's ice sheet which is 1/3rd its thickness of 30 years ago, or the Columbia Glacier in Alaska that has retreated 10 miles up the fjord the past 30 years, or the complete loss of one-half of the Andes' glaciers over the past 30 years, threatening the water supply for over 100 million people; everywhere on a worldwide basis the past 30 years appears to be shaping up as the acceleration phase of global climate change. Coincidentally, it is 30 years now that China has become a major player in a capitalist world.
Further first-hand proof of disappearing Tibetan glaciers is provided by David Breashears, Founder and Project Leader of the Glacier Research Imaging Project ("GRIP"), Melting Glaciers on the Roof of the World, (in a 2007 video.) Breashers climbed to 19.000 feet to photograph the exact spot that George Mallory photographed in 1921, which photo displayed an enormous glacier immediately below Mt. Everest. Breashear's 2007 photo, when compared to Mallory's of 86 years ago, shows the glacier has completely disappeared. In Breashears' words, "The glacier is gone."
The possibility of disappearing water resources is a multi-faceted problem because not only will people lack adequate supplies of drinking water, and a large part of China's economy depends upon its rivers, but also 80% of China's grain harvest comes from irrigated land that depends upon glacial water resources, and 60% of India's grain harvest is dependent upon irrigated land of glacial water. If the glaciers melt, people will not have water or food, businesses that are dependent upon the rivers will wither, and the countryside will morph into a remake of the film Mad Max, the story of a breakdown of society as people flock together in itinerant groupings in opposition to other tribes, fighting over control of scarce natural resources.
The question is: Where will a billion, or more, people go for food and water? They will be forced to travel the planet in tribal fashion in search of sustenance, a reversion to the Age of Cro-Magnon 40,000-50,000 years ago, hunting with spears as nomads who pierce bones, shells, and teeth to make body ornaments, which interestingly enough is reflected by today's tattoo-crazed society.
China's discovery of the benefits of capitalism, enriching the population of hundreds of millions of people by adopting a westernized middle class lifestyle is all for the good, and it is the most remarkable transformation of a society in history. But, unfortunately, it is happening in concert with CO2 emissions at the highest level in millions of years, similar to the Miocene Age when Antarctica's coastlines turned green with stunted trees and when carbon dioxide levels were around 400 to 600 parts per million (ppm). In 2012, carbon dioxide levels have climbed to 393 ppm, the highest they've been in the past several million years.
A SOLUTION- MAYBE, MAYBE NOT
According to Jonathan Watts,4 "China tripled its solar energy generating capacity last year and notched up major increases in wind and hydropower... but officials are still struggling to cap the growth in coal burning, which is the biggest source of carbon dioxide emissions in the world. The latest evidence of China's promotion of renewable energy has been welcomed by climate activists, but they warn that the benefits are being wiped out by the surge in coal consumption. After burning an extra 95m tonnes last year, China will soon account for half the coal burned on the planet."
The solution is obviously not to burn coal, and in this regard, China's investment in renewables has been remarkable within seven years of the government throwing its weight behind a renewable-energy law.5 China leads the international market in manufacture of solar photovoltaics and wind turbines. The country has the necessary manufacturing infrastructure, trained engineers, and a firm commitment. China has more installed wind power than any other country and has targeted doubling this resource by 2020. Additionally, there are expectations that solar will take off in the near future because the government is instituting policies to encourage this. The new standards force power companies to generate a mandatory proportion of energy from renewables, and there are penalties for failure to comply.
According to Nature magazine, China's government is solidly behind the renewables industry. Nevertheless, the country continues to pump more coal-generated CO2 emissions at a higher rate than any other country. The government has not turned away from its coal-induced prolific source of national income as reflected by its stupendous reserve of U.S. dollars, which may be the 'maybe not' part of a solution to CO2 emissions. In today's world, money is idolized. The planet is used.
It is only too obvious that the world has the capability to convert from fossil fuel power to 100% renewables, and to a very limited extent this is already happening, but whether it happens soon enough is the question that determines the prospect of either: (1) a difficult itinerant tribal lifestyle or (2) a thriving and comfortable urbanized lifestyle.
But... when is it too late?
* "How China Became Capitalist," Nick Schulz, "The American", Nov. 24, 2012 []
* Source: Jesse Jenkins, MIT- Production in the Innovation Economy Project, March 2011. []
* Greenpeace/Beijing, Dec. 12, 2012, "Ecoshock Radio" - An Interview []
* "China's Renewables Surge Dampened by Growth in Coal Consumption, The Guardian", Jan. 12, 2012 []
* "China's Slumping Renewable-Energy Industry Should be Learnt From, Not Dismissed, Nature" magazine, Oct. 3, 2012 []
Robert Hunziker (MA in economic history at DePaul University, Chicago) is a former hedge fund manager and now a professional independent negotiator for worldwide commodity actual transactions and a freelance writer for progressive publications as well as business journals. He can be contacted at: rlhunziker@gmail.com. Read other articles by Robert.
Hawaii tourism will significantly suffer from the current oil price escalation. Perhaps the time has come to expand our ecotourism opportunities. For more than twenty years now I have tried to interest the State and investors about Hawaiian Onsens. The following is excerpted from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth (http://simplesolutionsbook1.com/).
One of my earliest entrepreneurial pursuits was initiated during this period of the 1980's when I was serving on the board of the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii. This was a time when the Hawaii Ocean Science and Technology (HOST) Park was created adjacent to the ocean thermal energy conversion research facility at Keahole Point on the West Side of the Island of Hawaii. So I spearheaded a campaign to give equal time to geothermal power on the East Side and proposed a Geothermal Utilization and Environmental Science and Technology (GUEST) Park. The "environmentalists" and residents of the Puna region actually supported the concept, but the lack of geothermal effluents, orchestrated by them, closed down the facility.
I thus shifted my interest to starting a new business: Hawaiian Onsens. With Donald Okahara, who ran the largest engineering consultant office on the Big Island, Ronald Kunimitsu, a principal for an architectural firm in Honolulu, and Harry Olsen, a campus geologist, we formed The Pacific Geo-Spa Group to provide services to developers who had an interest in building an onsen (natural spa) in Hawaii.
What about the foul smelling hydrogen sulfide. Well, on trips to New Zealand, I learned that this odor actually attracted tourists to the resort town of Rotorua. The stench, by my standards, was horrific. But, apparently, sulfur is said to be of medicinal value, plus, there were these psychological benefits. I've been to a wide variety of these natural spas throughout the world, and every one came with gradations of this aroma.
In Japan, 100 million regularly visit their thermal springs, and so do Europeans to Bath and Baden-Baden. Many of them vacation in Hawaii, so what better than another eco-tourist adventure? In fact, with a volcano that has been continually erupting for more than twenty years (I was actually golfing at the Volcano Golf Course about a quarter century ago when, on the tenth hole, there was a shuddering of the ground, followed by a visible fountain of lava no more than a couple of miles away-this was the beginning of this Kilauea eruption), Hawaii then, and till today, has nothing resembling a geo-spa. Our team would provide local knowledge, scientific evidence of potential hot spots, fusion designs blending East and West and the right contacts for environmental approval and political support. An early supporter, State Senator Richard Matsuura, was instrumental in passing legislation (S.B. No. 3285 in 1990) exempting geothermal fluids below 150 degrees F from environmental restrictions and water drilling constraints.
Harry Olsen, the Spark Matsunaga Fellow in Renewable Energy Engineering, directed the Hawaii geothermal drilling program at that time. He had the capability to use slim hole drilling equipment to prospect for the ideal sites.
In the 1980's, Jim Woodruff and I presented a paper at one of the geothermal conferences in Hawaii on "Geothermal Spas: A New Business Opportunity in Hawaii," which helped solidify the foundation for development. In December of 1988, Grant Thornton produced a study for Hawaii on health spas and reported the concept to be highly promising.
In addition to various locations around the island of Hawaii, we found an ideal beachfront property next to the Makena Prince Hotel on Maui. The hotel then was owned by Yoshiaki Tsutsumi, dubbed the richest man in the world. However, I regularly, in those days, stayed at the Seiyo Ginza (in Tokyo) owned by his half brother, Seiji Tsutsumi. So I struck up a conversation with Seiji's people to consider developing the first onsen resort in Hawaii. Those talks never materialized, and today, poet and businessman Seiji, now in his 80's, has largely become irrelevant, and Yoshiaki, lord of Seibu, has been scandalized and might well end up in jail. Morgan Stanley supposedly bid 19 billion for Seibu, so a lot of dollars are being tossed around.
In the 1990's, Seiji Naya, a former campus colleague, became director of the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. Taking on the role of university partner to assist in economic development, I drafted white papers, met with potential developers from Japan he recommended, toured them around potential geo-spa sites and, at one, point, actually helped trigger a project to build a spa at a golf course. Alas, even this never happened. However, on my world travels I now and then stopped off at onsens throughout the world to further gain experience and continue to build contacts. I vividly recall spending a night at one along the slopes of Mt. Unzen on Kyushu in Japan, snow falling, a glass of hot sake in hand, just soaking. A few weeks later, there was an eruption, wiping out this onsen. Pompeii...Unzen...that is a concern for geo-spas in Hawaii.
But while the opportunity remains, the Pacific Geo-Spa Group is dormant. I still visit onsens when possible, and now and then talk to interested developers. This is an idea whose time came a long time ago but lacked the right person to lead the way.-DOUG CARLSON IN HIS BLOG TODAY INCLUDES AN UPBEAT HARVARD OTEC REPORT. GO TO: http://HawaiiEnergyOptions.blogspot.com-Oil ended today just below 137/barrel.-
According to reports, in an interview with CNBC-TV18's Anuj Singhal and Ekta Batra, RM Malla, Managing Director and CEO of PTC India Financial Services, outlined developments in the renewable power space. PTC is a major lender to renewable projects, with about 40 percent of overall loan book exposed to the sector. The CMD said that with solar costs coming down, as well as with the government's renewed focus on alternative sources of energy, the market was staring at an investment of about Rs 12 lakh crore in the next five-seven years. Below is the transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18.
Ekta: In the past few weeks and maybe even a couple of months now, we have been hearing about a lot of impetus and focus on the renewable energy space. We have seen a couple of big investors also which have come into renewable energy companies. You focus as well - in terms of your total loan book - on the renewable energy space. Can you tell us how sanctions are doing within that space at this point in time and how exactly are you increasing the focus if that is the case?
A: The country has realised the importance of renewable energy in a big way. From a mere 20,000 megawatt, which we were planning a couple of years back, we have now taken a mission to go up to 1 lakh megawatt in solar power. India has all the ingredients for making it a huge success. Fortunately, the project cost which used to be something like Rs 16 crore per megawatt has gradually come down to something like Rs 6 crore. If you compare this with coal-based (thermal) where project cost is in fact going closer to Rs 8 crore and hydro where it is Rs 10 crore or sometimes 11, I think it makes a huge sense for us Indians to go into solar energy in a big way. I believe that the beginning has been well made. The prime minister made a call and then the power minister the other day in February had a big conference of all solar developers, manufacturers in India. In quite some time I have not seen such a hugely successful seminar where as much as 2,80,000 megawatt in renewable energy has been promised. In next five-seven years, this opens a huge scope for financers like us and the banks. If I roughly calculate, 2 lakh megawatt multiplied by 6 crore per megawatt if we assume solar is the mode, it will work out to something like Rs 12 lakh crore. Assuming a debt-equity ratio of 70:30, it means something like Rs 9 lakh crore of lending in next five-seven years. So I think we are fortunately in the space at right time because we decided almost two years back to go to renewable and today our renewable portfolio is roughly 40 percent. The type of interest we are seeing both from domestic players as well as international players, I believe it is a very exciting time for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) like us to go onto the path. It is highly sustainable, ensures a reasonable return to both equity as well as lenders and assured return of almost 25 years.
Anuj: Can you tell us the kind of companies that involved in this because we have only two-three names that we can count at this point in time in renewable energy. If you could tell us both in India and globally which would be the prominent players?
A: Globally, one of the largest solar producer companies is in Germany followed by USA and then other European countries and China. European and American companies are both developers as well as module manufacturers. They have also shown interest in coming to India. All big names whether it is SunEdison, or some European companies, Israeli companies - people have started coming and they see a huge scope in this country because Europe has sunshine for not more than six months whereas we have sunshine for almost 300-330 days. So a lot of American companies are coming. Apart from that, a large number of pension and retirement funds have shown interest in this activity. For two reasons - one of course is pension and retirement funds want a sustainable return over a long period. Unlike if they invest in cement, steel or textile where their fortunes are tied with economic activity going up and down, in power you almost get an assured return because other parties, state utilities [sign long-term contracts]. And unlike cement, steel, textile, which can be exported and imported, so what happens in the globe also impacts India, power so far fortunately is not exported in a long way. So apart from the actual entrepreneurs, a lot of funds have shown interest in partnering with Indian partners.
Ekta: Can you tell us which are the projects or the kind of clients that you service and how do you manage to maintain your asset quality within the renewal energy space and is there any risk of defaults or what is the risk of defaults within that space?
A: Essentially I may not be able to share the names but I can say the who's who - both globally as well as in India - have started entering this. Apart from that a large number of public sector companies have also decided to come to renewable sector either on their own or with their joint venture, all this augurs very well. As far as your second question was concerned, as a lender, we have to be very prudent. All said and done, we have to ensure that the people are using the latest technology, they are using tier I suppliers and the promoter has experience either in this line or in other line from which he is migrating. We have given virtually veto power to our risk department and of four-five proposals which come for our consideration, one passes the muster. Because the market is so large, we can be choosy. We have done the reverse thing - we choose the client whom we should go and in fact we market our products to good clients and that is how we are getting who's who of the world partnering with us.
Article source: http://panchabuta.com/2015/04/07/renewable-power-to-need-rs-12-lakh-cr-investment-in-5-7-yrs-ptc/
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